Looking Back At 2009 And Looking Ahead To 2010

SmartBrief for Workforce (I am on the advisory board and also do some light writing for SmartBrief) is doing a round up of some predictive posts for the new year. Last year, I attempted to predict what would happen in 2009 so let’s see how well I did:

• Prediction: SHRM will continue being SHRM. Outcome: Correct but with caveats.
  • Obviously I haven’t done a complete 180 on SHRM quite yet but are they improving? Absolutely. Is it even close to the ideal that I envision? No. They are still paternal, they still push their political agenda and they are still very old school. Maybe that’s just a response to their membership base but there is hope.
• Prediction: The federal government will become more involved. Outcome: Correct.
  • Not as much as they could have been though and that should be a relief. As I mentioned, nearly any activity is going to be an increase. Fortunately for HR professionals, the rules that did come down this year were a product of other distractions in Washington DC.
• Prediction: Low state and local regulatory activity. Outcome: Correct mainly due to economic pressures.
  • I can only keep track of the largest states but it seems awfully quiet. New regulations and mandates have been slow from state and local governments due to their “save businesses at all cost” strategy. It is working for now but how long until they decide to reverse course?
• Prediction: The economy won’t stabilize in 2009. Outcome: Correct.
  • I saw the writing on the wall but I didn’t think it would be this severe for this long. Not only has the economic crisis impacted the US but the entire world is seeing the crunch now. Could 2010 be better? Could it get worse? The answer to both at this point is a resounding yes. We’ll have to wait and see.
• Prediction: Renewed focus on HR’s ROI. Outcome: Incorrect.
  • Swing and miss on this. There was a lot of talk about HR ROI but when it came down to it, most decisions in 2009 were based on one thing and one thing only: cost reduction. Companies were looking to reduce headcount and reduce overhead. That hurts HR. Let’s hope we get in the ROI discussion in 2010.
• Prediction: Seat at the table is still a conversation point. Outcome: Correct (and easiest prediction by far).
  • The conversation at HRevolution said it all. This will continue to be a focal point for some professionals while those who have either attained or checked out of the debate entirely will excuse themselves from it.
• Prediction: Generalists are still relevant in HR. Outcome: Correct.
  • As companies continue to look to do more with less, people with broad skill sets are valuable as flex players in companies. This includes HR people with skills outside of HR too. I don’t see this changing in 2010.
• Prediction: Vendors will see mixed results. Outcome: Incorrect thanks to cost cutting.
  • Vendors have been pushed into a corner of losing customers or lower prices and taking increasingly shrinking margins. Yes, there is no money for programs that add to the cost of doing business (even if the ROI is through the roof). Very conservative business strategy has hurt vendors universally. What will 2010 bring for HR vendors?
• Prediction: We’ll still be pushing paper. Outcome: Correct
  • And Brandon Roy still has to dribble the ball up the floor and pass the ball on occasion. Look, doing the basics well allows you the opportunity to do bigger and better things in HR. If a basketball player can’t dribble or pass (fundamentals of the game), they won’t make it to the level where their windmill jams are appreciated.
• Prediction: More will question SHRM. Outcome: Incorrect at the level that matters.
  • I say this because there seems to be some outsiders (or some with sizable voices) pushing for some changes at SHRM. Still, the membership continues to be content with what they are getting from SHRM. Is that right or wrong? I say it is a short term game but we’ll have to wait another year.
• Prediction: We’ll stop being scared of social media. Outcome: Incorrect but baby steps are being made.
  • Interest in social media has never been higher but that is like saying a drought stricken river that increases to a trickle has never had more water. Outside of very progressive companies (often getting pushed by marketing, not HR), social media is still a scary proposition to most HR folks. How do we overcome that in 2010?
• Prediction: HR won’t find its true identity. Outcome: Correct.
  • Who knows if it ever will?

What’s Next For 2010

I am not going to do that many predictions this year. That was exhausting. I’ve got one big idea for 2010:

2010 will be the year of the HR rock star

Here’s the idea:

• HR people may not know their true identity but we can identify when people are doing things right.
• HR will find voices and practitioners to emulate in spite of outside regulations.
• We will have some breakout stars in the area of workforce management and development.
• We will see the positive and negative impact of workforce management practices as companies look to recover

2010 will need HR rock stars. Since much of HR driven change is pushed by competitive practices, the only way to push progressive practices is to get people in HR who have latitude to make radical change for the best.

2010 is ripe for the emergence of the HR rock star. It is a new decade, we are (hopefully) coming out of the worst recession in 30 years and corporations are begging for bold leadership in their weakest spots.

What do you think will happen in 2010?